QE3中英對照

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以下為聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)於9/12、13會議後，發布的聲明全文。

自聯邦公開市場委員會8月會議後所接獲的訊息顯示，近幾個月，經濟活動持續以溫和的速度擴張。就業成長緩慢，失業率仍居高不下。家庭支出持續增加，但企業固定投資成長似乎已減緩。住宅市場自低檔呈現出進一步改善的訊號。雖然部份主要商品價格近來上漲，但通貨膨脹仍偏低。較長期通貨膨脹預期仍然穩定。
為符合法定任務，委員會尋求促進最大就業及物價穩定。委員會擔憂，若沒有進一步政策性寬鬆，經濟成長可能不夠強勁，無法讓勞工市場情況持續改善。此外，全球金融市場緊縮，持續為經濟展望帶來了重大下降風險。委員會亦預期，中期而言，通貨膨脹可能處於或低於其2%的目標。
為支撐較強勁的經濟復甦，並協助確保通貨膨脹於一段時間後，處於最符合雙重任務的水平，委員會今日同意透過以每月400億美元速度，購買機構抵押貸款擔保證券，以增加政策性寬鬆。委員會亦將持續6月宣布的延長持有證券平均到期日的計劃，直至年底，並仍維持將持有的機構債券與機構抵押擔保證券到期支付的本金，進行再投資的現行政策。這些行動--委員會每個月將增加持有較長期債券約850億美元，直至年底--當能對較長期利率增加下降壓力，支持抵押貸款市場，並協助讓更廣泛的金融情況更加寬鬆。
委員會將密切注意未來幾個月接獲的經濟與金融發展訊息。如果勞工市場展望未見持續改善，委員會將持續購買機構抵押貸款擔保證券，進一步購買資產，並適度運用其他政策工具，直到在物價穩定情況下，達成這類改善目標。為決定購買資產的金額，速度與類別，委員會將一如往常，適度考量這類購買資產的可能效力與成本。
為支持持續朝著最大就業與物價穩定進展，委員會預期，在經濟復甦轉強後，高度寬鬆的貨幣政策立場在一段相當期間，仍將屬適當。尤其，委員會今日決議維持聯邦基金利率目標範圍於0至0.25%，目前並預期，極低的聯邦基金利率可能得以保證，至少到2015年中。

Release Date: September 13, 2012
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August suggests that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace in recent months. Growth in employment has been slow, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Household spending has continued to advance, but growth in business fixed investment appears to have slowed. The housing sector has shown some further signs of improvement, albeit from a depressed level. Inflation has been subdued, although the prices of some key commodities have increased recently. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions. Furthermore, strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook. The Committee also anticipates that inflation over the medium term likely would run at or below its 2 percent objective.
To support a stronger economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with its dual mandate, the Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month. The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year, should put downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative.
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months. If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee expects that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the economic recovery strengthens. In particular, the Committee also decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be warranted at least through mid-2015.

KENCLIN_TW

1# KENCLIN_TW
09/2012 FOMC會議宣佈將推出開放式量化寬鬆政策，每個月將收購400億美元的MBS，且延續扭轉操作及證劵到期再投資政策，總計未來每個月購債規模將達850億美元。另外FED宣布延長低率政策至2015年不變

09/2001 FOMC會議重點如下：

(1) 因勞動市場改善緩慢，FED推出開放式QE：FED主要考量失業率居高不下而推出QE3，而市場最大驚喜在於FED並無設限量化期限及規模，量化政策執行至勞動市場實質改善為止。

(2) 美國經濟仍溫和復甦，且調升2013年美國經濟成長率：FOMC會後聲明表示雖勞動市場改善緩慢，企業固定投資增長減緩，但景氣繼續溫和擴張且家庭消費支出增加及房地產市場有進一步改善的跡象，因此FED雖將2012年經濟成長率從1.9%~2.4%下修至1.7%~2.0%，但將2013年經濟成長從2.2%~2.8%調升至2.5%3.0%。

(3) 通膨預期仍相當穩定：雖近期部分商品價格有所上升，不過目前通膨仍處於可控制階段，長期而言通膨預期仍穩定，且FOMC預估通膨率將維持2%以下。

FED推出開放式QE後，未來市場關注焦點將轉向FED何時會停止QE3，群益認為關鍵有四點：

(1) 美國景氣改善力道是否能有效調降失業率：FED這次推出QE3的關鍵在於失業率緩慢改善，因此景氣復甦已經不是FED關注事件，勞動市場能否有效改善將是貨幣政策的關鍵，所以未來仍須關注初領失業金人數的趨勢及非農就業增長。

(2) 2013年美國財政懸疑的衝擊：根據美國國會預算辦公室評估，若2013年財政懸崖效應徹底發揮，則2013年底美國失業率將攀升至9%以上，將迫使QE3的期限拉長。

(3) 潛在通膨預期是否上升：目前不管ECB或FED可以肆無忌憚的推出大規模量化政策，主要關鍵在於目前通膨因素穩定，因此未來若經濟出現強勁復甦，加上大量的強力貨幣供給，將使通膨急遽攀升，將迫使FED緊縮力道加強。

羅姆尼反對量化政策：若2012年美國總統大選由共和黨獲勝，則01/2014柏南克續任FED主席機會低，恐迫使FED政策大幅轉向。

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